Going from one state to the next can be like entering a new country when you look at the laws, leadership and ideology of the states' residents. Obama famously said in 2008, that we would no longer need to be red states or blue states, but the United States of America. It was a great thing to say, but it doesn't appear to be happening any time soon.
We all know 2012 is a Presidential Election year. I can sit down right now and at least pick 45 states' winner and not be incorrect. How can I do this? Because I know our ideological history, and I can see the map beforehand. How? Well to see just how long we have had the same basic ideological map, you need to go back to 1854, and look at the US map, as divided into free states, slave states, and territories which were allowed to have slavery by popular vote.
As you can see, the South was clear cut, the North was clear cut and the territories that allowed slavery were in the middle of the western territories. The three west coast states were free. Study this map because it will be the basis for every map that I'm about to show you. We have not changed very much since this map in ideology based on location on the map. It's pretty sad that for 200 years, things haven't really changed much. Let's take a look at some more maps.
Here's a Civil War map. You can see which states were in the US, and which states were in the CSA. If you had 8th grade American History, this map shouldn't be anything you haven't seen before. Reference this map after viewing the next set of maps in this post.
Here is a map of the 2000 US Election results. George W. Bush states are in Red, while Al Gore states are in blue. Look familiar? The ideologies of people between 1861 and 2000 appear to be darn near the same with very few exceptions. That is an amazing fact in and of itself. A person brought to 2000 from 1861 would see this election map and say "Yeah, that's what I expect to see." Think about that. Let's see another map:
Here's the 2004 election map. Kerry in blue, Bush in red. It's similar to the above map, except that now New Mexico has gone red, meaning that every former slave-by-popular-vote territory has gone red, and Vermont has gone blue, meaning that the entire Northeast stronghold from the Civil War has gone blue. Let's look at some more.
Here's the 2008 map. Obama in blue, McCain in red. This map is the first map since 1996 that didn't look exactly like the 1861 slave state/free state map. Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, North Carolina, Virginia, and Florida have gone blue here. Obama was swept into office by a big majority, much of which was based on Bush's performance over the previous 8 years.
So what we see here with these three election maps, is that when people want a change, they make it happen. Here's the 1996 map.
Comparing this map to the 2000 map, you can see the drastic differences. The map does look a little similar to the 1861 Slave State/Free State map, but there are drastic differences based on ideology. People liked Clinton in the South because he was seen as a Southerner. He had Al Gore as his running mate, who was from Tennessee, so it was basically two Southerners who were able to pull out states like Arkansas, Tennessee, Louisiana, Kentucky, Florida and even Arizona. So when you compare it to the 2000 map, you can see how many people went back to their original ideologies and the map was re-organized accordingly.
While there are definitely exceptions, especially in years affected by some kind of drastic shift in ideology or economic conditions, we can pretty much bank on the election map to look like the 1854/1861 maps. It's not just visible on election maps however. You can see this same pattern on maps of social issue trends, ideology trends, religious trends, and any other trends around our nation. Here are a few examples.
Let's look at the map I think would most obviously go along with the
1854/1861 map. Here's the US segregation map. You can see the whole of
the south, as well as Maryland, WV and Delaware had segregation by law.
You can see that a lot of states just didn't have a law one way or the
other, such as California, the Dakotas, Oregon, etc. You can see still more states where segregation is prohibited, most of the north, Colorado, Idaho and Washington.
Besides Colorado and Idaho, I think we can see that this is a North State/South State thing, to no one's surprise. Some states had "local option" legalities. This was especially troublesome, probably worse than
outright Jim Crow states. I feel that I would not be able to live in a
state of constant fear of whether or not my town would be taken over by
segregationists if we weren't segregated currently. I think a person
would rather know right up front one way or the other.
The above map is of one of the most controversial of all discussed laws in the country: Capital Punishment. It shows the states with death penalty, the states that haven't used it since 2000, and the states where it's not constitutional, and the states that do not have death penalty. It definitely has the look, except that the west coast three have the death penalty. When you look at the next map on the death penalty, you can see how even states that have this enacted have used it in a way that would resemble the 1861 ideology.
Look familiar? It should. It's pretty much the map from 1861, by executions. As we can see, the slave state/slave BPV territories really like to execute people. Conversely, the states that were free, that have death penalty, do not execute nearly as many people. Again, the ideology of residents of certain states has been pretty consistent for 150 years.
In case you can't read the legend, here's what it says: States in Dark Blue: Gay marriage could be legalized soon. States in Brighter Blue: Gay marriage legal. States in Red with Blue Stripes: Gay marriage banned but they have gay civil unions. States in Red: Gay marriage is banned by constitutional amendment. States in Grey: Gay marriage could be banned soon. This map is almost completely up to date; Washington signed gay marriage into law recently. You can see that legal vs illegal states, including pending, really follows the same map layout as 1854/1861 pretty well yet again.
In case you don't know what Right To Work Law is, it basically means that you have a right to employment at a workplace without being forced to join the union of said business. Some people argue that it allows you more freedom in choice of work, while others say it is just a union-busting method by big business to ultimately pay workers lower wages and give them less benefits. In some studies, it has been pointed out that workers in RTW states make less. Here, you can see that it follows that same 1854/1861 pattern. Hmm.
Another big issue of debate between Red States and Blue States seems to be gun control, firearm safety laws. While I couldn't find a map showing strong gun control law states vs lax gun control law states, I did find this interesting map. It's from 2007 and shows the number of deaths caused by injuries sustained from firearms. The darker states are the old South and Slave BPV territories, while the lighter states seem to be the old North and the Western Three. Again, just an observation of how the colors seem to mirror 1854/1861 here.
This is my final map. This is a map from 2010, showing the HDI by state for the US. HDI stands for Human Development Index. It basically combines your state's score in four indexes: Life Expectancy, Education(including Literacy Rate), Mean Years of Education of Residents, and Average Income. The way to read this map is to basically see that the lighter the color, the worse the state scored in HDI. You can see that, not to beat a dead horse, it follows the 1854/1861 map pretty well in states that are grouped together by score.
If you take these cumulatively, you can see that states have basically had their ideologies set in stone since 1854, with very little change. People can temporarily shift for an election, but it is not a long-term shift. I don't see any major shift in ideology in the near future for any area of the country. It seems that since 2000, ideology has only become more engrained, and people have really clung to the red state/blue state idea. It's sad to think the country hasn't changed it's thinking in 150 years, and that there have been "safe havens" for people of certain schools of thought.
Will it ever change? As someone who has lived in a strong Southern ideological state, and someone who has lived in a state with southern mentality, but goes blue locally, I can say that I think it will take something absolutely major in history to change how people living anywhere think as a general consensus. I don't know if I will see that change in my lifetime. What do you think?
